Vegas Odds Democratic Nomination
2021年12月4日Register here: http://gg.gg/x5041
In July 2020, the Democratic Party will choose a candidate to represent them in the Presidential Election, presumably against the incumbent Donald Trump. If they’re somehow able to get him out of office before then, that’d be a big win for the left which would drastically alter the stakes and tone of the primaries.
As it stands, with the President in office as expected, a central theme in choosing a ticket worthy of taking over the White House will be, “Who can beat Trump?”
Considering the current state of the Democrats, with the old guard butting heads with the rise of the Progressives, the answer to that question may not be the same as “Who can win these Democratic primaries?” We’ve seen the party’s power structure misdiagnose how to defeat the controversial Republican incumbent before.
Whichever challenger emerges will have first to defeat a sizable field. With an influx of young progressive candidates mixed with some establishment figures and the return of Bernie Sanders, the 2020 Democratic Primary promises to be some grade-A political drama. Let’s find some solid gambling value to make it profitable as well.
*Betting Odds - Democratic Presidential Nomination. Dem Delegate Count, Map Dem Popular Vote Latest 2020 Polls. Betting Odds - Democratic Presidential Nomination.
*The odds and amount of votes will vary from candidate to candidate and are based on that individual’s standing within the election. Betting Odds for Winning the 2020 Presidential Primary. Lines covering the primaries will be offered for each party represented in the election. You are betting on who will win the nomination from each political.
*Democratic National Convention Betting Opportunities. When: July 13-16, 2020; Where: Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Choosing a Nominee. Following the 50 state-level contests, the remaining candidates arrive at the Democratic convention in July to plead their cases for the nomination.Early Betting Odds to Win the 2020 Democratic Primary:KAMALA HARRIS+300MITCH LANDRIEU+3300BETO OROURKE+350JEFF MERKLEY+5000ELIZABETH WARREN+800TOM STEYER+5000JOE BIDEN+500GAVIN NEWSOM+5500BERNIE SANDERS+900STEVE BULLOCK+6600KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND+1700JAY NIXON+6600CORY BOOKER+1200TAMMY DUCKWORTH+8000MICHAEL BLOOMBERG+1600TIM KAINE+10000TULSI GABBARD+900GEORGE CLOONEY+5000AMY KLOBUCHAR+1000JULIAN CASTRO+2000SHERROD BROWN+1100ANDREW CUOMO+4000OPRAH WINFREY+2000MARK WARNER+4000JOHN HICKENLOOPER+3000TERRY MCAULIFFE+4000ERIC GARCETTI+2500JOE MANCHIN+6600MICHELLE OBAMA+1600MARTIN OMALLEY+4000HILLARY CLINTON+1600JERRY BROWN+6600MICHAEL AVENATTI+3500DWAYNE JOHNSON+4000DEVAL PATRICK+2000MARK ZUCKERBERG+6600HOWARD SCHULTZ+5000ANDREW YANG+12500TIM RYAN+5000AL FRANKEN+30000SETH MOULTON+3500CHELSEA CLINTON+10000
Not only are candidate odds changing with the pandemic, but Vegas election odds have also been affected by the Coronavirus. Democratic Presidential Candidates for 2020 The field of Democrats running for the 2020 Presidency currently has eight (8) candidates participating.Finding the Perfect Opponent for Trump
For the better part of four years now, the political establishment in both parties has been generally baffled by Donald Trump’s winning 2016 campaign. The victory now appears to be part of a broader global populist trend that may give us some insight into how 2020’s festivities will play out as well.
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of it all is that the left still doesn’t seem to comprehend what went wrong in the first place. And yelling about Russia for Republican two years now hasn’t done much to impact Trump and his now-dug-in base.
For the Democrats to steal back the White House, they need to find a way to attract all of those so-called “Bernie Bros” that abandoned the party after feeling robbed in the 2016 primaries by Hillary Clinton and the establishment party officials.
And how much are they willing to sacrifice to win those voters anyway? Will the Dems be ready to surrender control to the growing Progressive wing of the party that can tap into some of that Sanders’ magic? Or, will they try to sneak-in an establishment figure, hoping to do just enough to scoop up the handful of Bernie’s fans they need for the electoral?Howard Schultz
One wildcard out there, who may end up playing a crucial role in deciding which Democratic candidate is “electable” is the entrepreneur and two-time Starbucks Chairman and CEO — Howard Schultz. The coffee magnate has been threatening to run as an independent if some of the more socialist voices on the left come into power.
I use the term “threat” because the widespread fear in left-leaning circles is that his “socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative” message will pull more support away from the Democratic nominee than it will from Trump on election day. Immediately upon announcing his intentions to run, some of the louder and more prominent voices on the left began to directly and aggressively attack Schultz – going so far as to call for boycotts of Starbucks.
So, Howard will be hanging over everyone’s head during the primaries. “Electability” is already a hot topic amongst the Dems, and one of the primary concerns that seem to come up when discussing candidates like Harris, Gabbert, O’Rourke, and Sanders.
If the party truly believes any Progressive nominee will prompt his entry into the race – thus, splitting the left’s vote and handing the Presidency to Trump – they may feel more inclined to push “safer” insiders like Joe Biden.
However, I’m not sure the Democrats are correct in their assertion that Schultz running would hurt their chances at taking the White House. I suspect they’re drastically underrating how many votes his message could steal away from Trump and overrating how many Dems would be tempted to go outside the party.
Regardless, nothing I’ve seen from the movers-and-shakers on the left tells me that they understand or know how to combat Trump. Their fear of Schultz makes this abundantly apparent.Voting Blocs
The political types behind the scenes like to break voters down into specific blocs who they then tailor specific messages towards. Last election, Hillary’s people focused on the Democratic loyalists, Hispanics, and the Black vote while ignoring the younger and further left-leaning voices.
Well, the traditional analysts and part members believe the “Bernie Bros” were more “left-leaning” or socialist anyway – I’m not so sure they’ve got that part right.
I’ve seen countless articles, videos, and interviews discussing Bernie Sanders’ 2016 run and why so many of his supporters refused to cast their vote for Hillary after her team and the Democratic Party successfully stole the primaries.
The left loves to blame this group of voters for being racist or sexist or for having been fooled by Russian operatives. For the most part, this is all BS, and remarkably tone-deaf. They really can’t see how fed-up people are, and for that reason, they are in denial of the “Outsider” voting bloc.
For example, even FiveThirtyEight.com — probably the most reliable mainstream political analysts around these days – broke the five Democratic voting blocs down like so:
*Party Loyalists
*The Left
*Millennials and Friends
*Black Voters
*Hispanic and Asian Voters
In a recent article about these different groups, Nate Silver highlights a candidate’s job to capture a coalition of voters from as many of these blocs as possible. That part’s obvious, but I don’t think he’s defining these various sub-sections of the party accurately – at least in a couple of cases.
Silver mentions throughout the article how a large number of “the Left” didn’t make the jump from Sanders to Hillary, believing these more Progressive voters either stayed home or went with a third-party candidate. He also mentions how the younger members of the “Millennials and Friends” and Black voters were turned off from Hillary as well.
If I were breaking down the Democratic masses to best design a campaign, I think my categories would look something closer to this:
*Party Loyalists
*Progressives / Far Left
*Outsiders / Idealists
*Students
*Identity Groups
It’s that third group that I suspect elected Donald Trump. Of the 26% of Bernie Bros who didn’t cast a vote for Hillary, 12% threw their support behind the current President. What that figure doesn’t account for are all the similarly-minded citizens who may not have been given the option to participate in the primaries or who are registered Republicans.
A massive portion of Sanders’s supporters wasn’t so passionately behind him because they love socialism and higher taxed; they thought he was honest and discussing ideas that most career politicians won’t touch. They want to hear people talking truthfully about campaign finance reform, taxes on the rich, and how our government seems to solely exist for the benefit of massive international corporations.
If you’re a Democrat, you probably just muttered something along the lines of, “well, if they wanted honesty how could they vote for the biggest lying, stealing, sexist, racist, person to ever live?!?” Easy.
After watching the candidate they loved cheated out of the race by the establishment, they decided that any outsider would do. Maybe Trump is a bad guy, but they’d rather throw that human Molotov cocktail at Capitol Hill – the guy who doesn’t look or sound like any of the “real” politicians – than settle for yet another member of the political elite.
It wasn’t that they didn’t want a woman president. It wasn’t that they were racist. They weren’t even fooled and manipulated by the Russian boogeymen. They want actual change, and I suspect they’ll be looking for it again this year – from someone other than Bernie. More on that later.Game-Changing Scenarios
I’m writing this article way too early; so much is going to happen between now and those first few primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some of the front-runners we’re looking at as legit contenders right now won’t even make it on the first ballots. Scandals will arise, campaigns will make fatal tactical errors, there will be debate flubs, and a long-shot or two will significantly outperform early projections.
More than anything: Deals will be made. Not everybody that has announced their intention to run wants to be President. More than a handful are hoping to parlay a 2020 campaign into greater prominence on the national stage, negotiate an appointment for themselves, or attach themselves to the ticket.
Looking at the pool of candidates, there are some exciting combinations if a few of the favorites are open to being the Vice President. If the primaries are a close-fought and bitter battle to the end, the Democrats don’t have a prayer of beating Trump in November 2020. But, if a team or two forms early, and we get the right arrangement of options, the left might end their four-year nightmare after-all.
For instance, I think Joe Bidden will need a VP that the party can sell to Bernie Bros. That means it’ll have to be someone progressive that can retain enough of them without causing too much of a fuss for the pro-war, corporatist, establishment Dems.
Maybe an Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Corey Booker – progressives who may be willing to compromise their ideas to advance their careers, but are still trusted by most of the far left.
All of the progressive candidates could become a serious presidential contender if anyone could talk Bernie into playing a sort of “sage mentor” role as their Vice President. Whether he backed Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, or someone like Beto O’Rourke, that candidate would immediately re-ignite the passion Sanders’s 2016 run inspired – something I don’t think he can do again on his own.
Similarly, it’s fathomable that Bernie Sanders will talk one of the other candidates into being his VP and announcing the formation fairly early-on. He’ll probably need someone closer to center if he wants the Democratic machine to get out of his way and bless the nomination; Tim Ryan, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, and Amy Klobuchar are all decent choices.
Any of these big-name candidates either combining as a ticket or throwing their support behind one of their opponents could ultimately decide the Democratic Primary. Having to predict the most likely scenarios are undoubtedly a challenge, but that’s why these futures bets from so far out pay so well.The Major PlayersBernie Sanders (+900)
Bernie Sanders’s 2016 bid to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States changed the party for the foreseeable future. He popularized socialism in a way other progressive politicians — like Elizabeth Warren, for example — had yet to do, leading to a new more aggressively liberal movement within the ranks of the Dems.
Approaching 2020, the party has had to move further left – with a whole lot’a candidates running without corporate donors or SuperPAC money, while openly discussing things like Medicare-for-all, taxing the wealthy, free college, and other anxiety-inducing topics for billionaires.
Considering he was so close to winning the nomination last time, you’d think a +900-betting line would be appealing; but I’m staying far away. It’s impossible to quantify, but I’d guess a decent amount of the intensity around Bernie had to do with who he opposed.
Against Hillary Clinton, the contrast was severe. With enormous swathes of the country having never recovered from the 2008 financial collapse, people are getting tired of the usual “promise you everything, then sell everyone out to corporate and monied interests” politicians who dominate the upper echelons of power in the States.
A candidate came along that wanted to make a few decisions that would actually benefit the regular people, and everybody flipped. All he had to do was be straightforward about corporations and Wall Street, and not be her, and he was golden.
Now, the people at the top – in both parties – obviously don’t want to change the system to the extent that some of these progressives are talking. But they also can’t be too apparent in showing the citizens that they’re not going to be allowed to make any of the changes being discussed.
Bernie was cheated at every turn in 2016, which backfired. For 2020, the party bosses are either more prepared or way luckier. Instead of facing a single pro-big pharma/war/banker/corporation, establishment Democrat, they’ve compiled a field that effectively eliminates every advantage he had.
Only Joe Biden can be attacked in the same manner as Clinton was in 2016; the rest of his significant competitors are his own creation, in a sense. The field of viable progressive candidates includes Tulsi Gabbard, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Beto O’Rourke — as well as establishment-Dems-in-progressive-clothing, like Corey Booker.
Sanders already struggled to capture the black vote – which ended up being the difference in last election’s primaries. He does well with the younger voters in minority blocs, but not the older members. Harris and Booker will likely take a sizable portion of his supporters in these camps.
Tulsi Gabbard will be able to outflank Bernie to the left. I suspect she will paint him as a sellout, using the candidate’s Venezuela opinions as proof. Beto represents a younger, less grumpy image of progressivism and is the only Democrat with the Obama-like potential to show up and blitzkrieg the entire field for the nomination out of nowhere.
Then there’s Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been sharing a similar message as Sanders for years now, but like 60% of Democratic voters, she’s a woman. The perfect compromise between Hillary and Bernie, in a weird way. What makes Elizabeth uniquely dangerous is that she’s writing and presenting actual policies to go along with her campaign.
Instead of merely mentioning a tax plan, for example, she’s drawing up the details and releasing them to the public. This forces her opponents to do the same. When you’re promising some of the things Bernie may need to – especially if forced to “out-liberal” some of his competition – it becomes much more challenging when you’re forced to create concrete written proposals to go along with them.
Not only do I not see Bernie recreating 2016’s success, I think he puts an end to campaign after Super Tuesday. Hopefully, he can then join another ticket as VP – although, I doubt that’s an option in his mind.Joe Biden (+500)
I’m just going to tell you right now; at +500, I absolutely love this line and will 100% be taking heavy action on these odds. If the field of candidates stays as large as expected and continues to include multiple far-left (relative to typical US politics) options to compete with Bernie, Joe can slide into this nomination without being anyone’s first choice.
Europlayers login. In fact, polls shared by FiveThirtyEight.com show that no matter who a voter’s first choice may be, either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are always their second favorite. As the horde of progressives cannibalize themselves – or force each other so far left that it freaks out the Democratic base — Biden has an ideal opportunity to steal this thing.
He has the Obama recommendation, which – as a white male – may make him more palatable to minority voters (though the party may not worry as much about them, assuming anti-Trump sentiments are enough). Besides his experience as VP, I also think Joe benefits from having gone away and not run the last election. Now, voters who miss the Obama days will see Biden as a welcome return to those days.
Most importantly, the former Vice President has the entire establishment Democratic machine behind him. That’s a massive advantage, especially concerning fund-raising.Kamala Harris (+300)
Kamala Harris is one of the favorites to win the nomination this far out. At +300 odds, she presents the worst betting value among the real contenders. While she checks off some fairly significant boxes, I also see a few red flags that could sabotage her campaign within the exact voting blocs to which she appeals.
For example, she’s a mixed-race minority woman. There’s a sizable piece of the Democratic voters that will feel a strong connection to her. But what percentage of those blocs will look past the way she had parents arrested and prosecuted for their children’s truancy. How many low-income single mothers would be disproportionately impacted by such a policy?
There are other votes and comments throughout her political career that will cause similar controversies. In San Francisco, she backed legislation that resulted in ICE being notified whenever undocumented juveniles were arrested, for instance.
She’s also been caught in lies trying to appeal to younger voters and minorities. Harris claimed to smoke weed in college, which seems inconsistent with her morals as a tough-on-crime prosecutor. She went further by saying she liked listening to Tupac or Snoop Dogg when this supposed smoking happened, despite graduating from law school in 1989 before either of them had ever released an album.
Harr
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
In July 2020, the Democratic Party will choose a candidate to represent them in the Presidential Election, presumably against the incumbent Donald Trump. If they’re somehow able to get him out of office before then, that’d be a big win for the left which would drastically alter the stakes and tone of the primaries.
As it stands, with the President in office as expected, a central theme in choosing a ticket worthy of taking over the White House will be, “Who can beat Trump?”
Considering the current state of the Democrats, with the old guard butting heads with the rise of the Progressives, the answer to that question may not be the same as “Who can win these Democratic primaries?” We’ve seen the party’s power structure misdiagnose how to defeat the controversial Republican incumbent before.
Whichever challenger emerges will have first to defeat a sizable field. With an influx of young progressive candidates mixed with some establishment figures and the return of Bernie Sanders, the 2020 Democratic Primary promises to be some grade-A political drama. Let’s find some solid gambling value to make it profitable as well.
*Betting Odds - Democratic Presidential Nomination. Dem Delegate Count, Map Dem Popular Vote Latest 2020 Polls. Betting Odds - Democratic Presidential Nomination.
*The odds and amount of votes will vary from candidate to candidate and are based on that individual’s standing within the election. Betting Odds for Winning the 2020 Presidential Primary. Lines covering the primaries will be offered for each party represented in the election. You are betting on who will win the nomination from each political.
*Democratic National Convention Betting Opportunities. When: July 13-16, 2020; Where: Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Choosing a Nominee. Following the 50 state-level contests, the remaining candidates arrive at the Democratic convention in July to plead their cases for the nomination.Early Betting Odds to Win the 2020 Democratic Primary:KAMALA HARRIS+300MITCH LANDRIEU+3300BETO OROURKE+350JEFF MERKLEY+5000ELIZABETH WARREN+800TOM STEYER+5000JOE BIDEN+500GAVIN NEWSOM+5500BERNIE SANDERS+900STEVE BULLOCK+6600KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND+1700JAY NIXON+6600CORY BOOKER+1200TAMMY DUCKWORTH+8000MICHAEL BLOOMBERG+1600TIM KAINE+10000TULSI GABBARD+900GEORGE CLOONEY+5000AMY KLOBUCHAR+1000JULIAN CASTRO+2000SHERROD BROWN+1100ANDREW CUOMO+4000OPRAH WINFREY+2000MARK WARNER+4000JOHN HICKENLOOPER+3000TERRY MCAULIFFE+4000ERIC GARCETTI+2500JOE MANCHIN+6600MICHELLE OBAMA+1600MARTIN OMALLEY+4000HILLARY CLINTON+1600JERRY BROWN+6600MICHAEL AVENATTI+3500DWAYNE JOHNSON+4000DEVAL PATRICK+2000MARK ZUCKERBERG+6600HOWARD SCHULTZ+5000ANDREW YANG+12500TIM RYAN+5000AL FRANKEN+30000SETH MOULTON+3500CHELSEA CLINTON+10000
Not only are candidate odds changing with the pandemic, but Vegas election odds have also been affected by the Coronavirus. Democratic Presidential Candidates for 2020 The field of Democrats running for the 2020 Presidency currently has eight (8) candidates participating.Finding the Perfect Opponent for Trump
For the better part of four years now, the political establishment in both parties has been generally baffled by Donald Trump’s winning 2016 campaign. The victory now appears to be part of a broader global populist trend that may give us some insight into how 2020’s festivities will play out as well.
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of it all is that the left still doesn’t seem to comprehend what went wrong in the first place. And yelling about Russia for Republican two years now hasn’t done much to impact Trump and his now-dug-in base.
For the Democrats to steal back the White House, they need to find a way to attract all of those so-called “Bernie Bros” that abandoned the party after feeling robbed in the 2016 primaries by Hillary Clinton and the establishment party officials.
And how much are they willing to sacrifice to win those voters anyway? Will the Dems be ready to surrender control to the growing Progressive wing of the party that can tap into some of that Sanders’ magic? Or, will they try to sneak-in an establishment figure, hoping to do just enough to scoop up the handful of Bernie’s fans they need for the electoral?Howard Schultz
One wildcard out there, who may end up playing a crucial role in deciding which Democratic candidate is “electable” is the entrepreneur and two-time Starbucks Chairman and CEO — Howard Schultz. The coffee magnate has been threatening to run as an independent if some of the more socialist voices on the left come into power.
I use the term “threat” because the widespread fear in left-leaning circles is that his “socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative” message will pull more support away from the Democratic nominee than it will from Trump on election day. Immediately upon announcing his intentions to run, some of the louder and more prominent voices on the left began to directly and aggressively attack Schultz – going so far as to call for boycotts of Starbucks.
So, Howard will be hanging over everyone’s head during the primaries. “Electability” is already a hot topic amongst the Dems, and one of the primary concerns that seem to come up when discussing candidates like Harris, Gabbert, O’Rourke, and Sanders.
If the party truly believes any Progressive nominee will prompt his entry into the race – thus, splitting the left’s vote and handing the Presidency to Trump – they may feel more inclined to push “safer” insiders like Joe Biden.
However, I’m not sure the Democrats are correct in their assertion that Schultz running would hurt their chances at taking the White House. I suspect they’re drastically underrating how many votes his message could steal away from Trump and overrating how many Dems would be tempted to go outside the party.
Regardless, nothing I’ve seen from the movers-and-shakers on the left tells me that they understand or know how to combat Trump. Their fear of Schultz makes this abundantly apparent.Voting Blocs
The political types behind the scenes like to break voters down into specific blocs who they then tailor specific messages towards. Last election, Hillary’s people focused on the Democratic loyalists, Hispanics, and the Black vote while ignoring the younger and further left-leaning voices.
Well, the traditional analysts and part members believe the “Bernie Bros” were more “left-leaning” or socialist anyway – I’m not so sure they’ve got that part right.
I’ve seen countless articles, videos, and interviews discussing Bernie Sanders’ 2016 run and why so many of his supporters refused to cast their vote for Hillary after her team and the Democratic Party successfully stole the primaries.
The left loves to blame this group of voters for being racist or sexist or for having been fooled by Russian operatives. For the most part, this is all BS, and remarkably tone-deaf. They really can’t see how fed-up people are, and for that reason, they are in denial of the “Outsider” voting bloc.
For example, even FiveThirtyEight.com — probably the most reliable mainstream political analysts around these days – broke the five Democratic voting blocs down like so:
*Party Loyalists
*The Left
*Millennials and Friends
*Black Voters
*Hispanic and Asian Voters
In a recent article about these different groups, Nate Silver highlights a candidate’s job to capture a coalition of voters from as many of these blocs as possible. That part’s obvious, but I don’t think he’s defining these various sub-sections of the party accurately – at least in a couple of cases.
Silver mentions throughout the article how a large number of “the Left” didn’t make the jump from Sanders to Hillary, believing these more Progressive voters either stayed home or went with a third-party candidate. He also mentions how the younger members of the “Millennials and Friends” and Black voters were turned off from Hillary as well.
If I were breaking down the Democratic masses to best design a campaign, I think my categories would look something closer to this:
*Party Loyalists
*Progressives / Far Left
*Outsiders / Idealists
*Students
*Identity Groups
It’s that third group that I suspect elected Donald Trump. Of the 26% of Bernie Bros who didn’t cast a vote for Hillary, 12% threw their support behind the current President. What that figure doesn’t account for are all the similarly-minded citizens who may not have been given the option to participate in the primaries or who are registered Republicans.
A massive portion of Sanders’s supporters wasn’t so passionately behind him because they love socialism and higher taxed; they thought he was honest and discussing ideas that most career politicians won’t touch. They want to hear people talking truthfully about campaign finance reform, taxes on the rich, and how our government seems to solely exist for the benefit of massive international corporations.
If you’re a Democrat, you probably just muttered something along the lines of, “well, if they wanted honesty how could they vote for the biggest lying, stealing, sexist, racist, person to ever live?!?” Easy.
After watching the candidate they loved cheated out of the race by the establishment, they decided that any outsider would do. Maybe Trump is a bad guy, but they’d rather throw that human Molotov cocktail at Capitol Hill – the guy who doesn’t look or sound like any of the “real” politicians – than settle for yet another member of the political elite.
It wasn’t that they didn’t want a woman president. It wasn’t that they were racist. They weren’t even fooled and manipulated by the Russian boogeymen. They want actual change, and I suspect they’ll be looking for it again this year – from someone other than Bernie. More on that later.Game-Changing Scenarios
I’m writing this article way too early; so much is going to happen between now and those first few primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some of the front-runners we’re looking at as legit contenders right now won’t even make it on the first ballots. Scandals will arise, campaigns will make fatal tactical errors, there will be debate flubs, and a long-shot or two will significantly outperform early projections.
More than anything: Deals will be made. Not everybody that has announced their intention to run wants to be President. More than a handful are hoping to parlay a 2020 campaign into greater prominence on the national stage, negotiate an appointment for themselves, or attach themselves to the ticket.
Looking at the pool of candidates, there are some exciting combinations if a few of the favorites are open to being the Vice President. If the primaries are a close-fought and bitter battle to the end, the Democrats don’t have a prayer of beating Trump in November 2020. But, if a team or two forms early, and we get the right arrangement of options, the left might end their four-year nightmare after-all.
For instance, I think Joe Bidden will need a VP that the party can sell to Bernie Bros. That means it’ll have to be someone progressive that can retain enough of them without causing too much of a fuss for the pro-war, corporatist, establishment Dems.
Maybe an Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or Corey Booker – progressives who may be willing to compromise their ideas to advance their careers, but are still trusted by most of the far left.
All of the progressive candidates could become a serious presidential contender if anyone could talk Bernie into playing a sort of “sage mentor” role as their Vice President. Whether he backed Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, or someone like Beto O’Rourke, that candidate would immediately re-ignite the passion Sanders’s 2016 run inspired – something I don’t think he can do again on his own.
Similarly, it’s fathomable that Bernie Sanders will talk one of the other candidates into being his VP and announcing the formation fairly early-on. He’ll probably need someone closer to center if he wants the Democratic machine to get out of his way and bless the nomination; Tim Ryan, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, and Amy Klobuchar are all decent choices.
Any of these big-name candidates either combining as a ticket or throwing their support behind one of their opponents could ultimately decide the Democratic Primary. Having to predict the most likely scenarios are undoubtedly a challenge, but that’s why these futures bets from so far out pay so well.The Major PlayersBernie Sanders (+900)
Bernie Sanders’s 2016 bid to be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States changed the party for the foreseeable future. He popularized socialism in a way other progressive politicians — like Elizabeth Warren, for example — had yet to do, leading to a new more aggressively liberal movement within the ranks of the Dems.
Approaching 2020, the party has had to move further left – with a whole lot’a candidates running without corporate donors or SuperPAC money, while openly discussing things like Medicare-for-all, taxing the wealthy, free college, and other anxiety-inducing topics for billionaires.
Considering he was so close to winning the nomination last time, you’d think a +900-betting line would be appealing; but I’m staying far away. It’s impossible to quantify, but I’d guess a decent amount of the intensity around Bernie had to do with who he opposed.
Against Hillary Clinton, the contrast was severe. With enormous swathes of the country having never recovered from the 2008 financial collapse, people are getting tired of the usual “promise you everything, then sell everyone out to corporate and monied interests” politicians who dominate the upper echelons of power in the States.
A candidate came along that wanted to make a few decisions that would actually benefit the regular people, and everybody flipped. All he had to do was be straightforward about corporations and Wall Street, and not be her, and he was golden.
Now, the people at the top – in both parties – obviously don’t want to change the system to the extent that some of these progressives are talking. But they also can’t be too apparent in showing the citizens that they’re not going to be allowed to make any of the changes being discussed.
Bernie was cheated at every turn in 2016, which backfired. For 2020, the party bosses are either more prepared or way luckier. Instead of facing a single pro-big pharma/war/banker/corporation, establishment Democrat, they’ve compiled a field that effectively eliminates every advantage he had.
Only Joe Biden can be attacked in the same manner as Clinton was in 2016; the rest of his significant competitors are his own creation, in a sense. The field of viable progressive candidates includes Tulsi Gabbard, Sherrod Brown, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Beto O’Rourke — as well as establishment-Dems-in-progressive-clothing, like Corey Booker.
Sanders already struggled to capture the black vote – which ended up being the difference in last election’s primaries. He does well with the younger voters in minority blocs, but not the older members. Harris and Booker will likely take a sizable portion of his supporters in these camps.
Tulsi Gabbard will be able to outflank Bernie to the left. I suspect she will paint him as a sellout, using the candidate’s Venezuela opinions as proof. Beto represents a younger, less grumpy image of progressivism and is the only Democrat with the Obama-like potential to show up and blitzkrieg the entire field for the nomination out of nowhere.
Then there’s Elizabeth Warren. Warren has been sharing a similar message as Sanders for years now, but like 60% of Democratic voters, she’s a woman. The perfect compromise between Hillary and Bernie, in a weird way. What makes Elizabeth uniquely dangerous is that she’s writing and presenting actual policies to go along with her campaign.
Instead of merely mentioning a tax plan, for example, she’s drawing up the details and releasing them to the public. This forces her opponents to do the same. When you’re promising some of the things Bernie may need to – especially if forced to “out-liberal” some of his competition – it becomes much more challenging when you’re forced to create concrete written proposals to go along with them.
Not only do I not see Bernie recreating 2016’s success, I think he puts an end to campaign after Super Tuesday. Hopefully, he can then join another ticket as VP – although, I doubt that’s an option in his mind.Joe Biden (+500)
I’m just going to tell you right now; at +500, I absolutely love this line and will 100% be taking heavy action on these odds. If the field of candidates stays as large as expected and continues to include multiple far-left (relative to typical US politics) options to compete with Bernie, Joe can slide into this nomination without being anyone’s first choice.
Europlayers login. In fact, polls shared by FiveThirtyEight.com show that no matter who a voter’s first choice may be, either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are always their second favorite. As the horde of progressives cannibalize themselves – or force each other so far left that it freaks out the Democratic base — Biden has an ideal opportunity to steal this thing.
He has the Obama recommendation, which – as a white male – may make him more palatable to minority voters (though the party may not worry as much about them, assuming anti-Trump sentiments are enough). Besides his experience as VP, I also think Joe benefits from having gone away and not run the last election. Now, voters who miss the Obama days will see Biden as a welcome return to those days.
Most importantly, the former Vice President has the entire establishment Democratic machine behind him. That’s a massive advantage, especially concerning fund-raising.Kamala Harris (+300)
Kamala Harris is one of the favorites to win the nomination this far out. At +300 odds, she presents the worst betting value among the real contenders. While she checks off some fairly significant boxes, I also see a few red flags that could sabotage her campaign within the exact voting blocs to which she appeals.
For example, she’s a mixed-race minority woman. There’s a sizable piece of the Democratic voters that will feel a strong connection to her. But what percentage of those blocs will look past the way she had parents arrested and prosecuted for their children’s truancy. How many low-income single mothers would be disproportionately impacted by such a policy?
There are other votes and comments throughout her political career that will cause similar controversies. In San Francisco, she backed legislation that resulted in ICE being notified whenever undocumented juveniles were arrested, for instance.
She’s also been caught in lies trying to appeal to younger voters and minorities. Harris claimed to smoke weed in college, which seems inconsistent with her morals as a tough-on-crime prosecutor. She went further by saying she liked listening to Tupac or Snoop Dogg when this supposed smoking happened, despite graduating from law school in 1989 before either of them had ever released an album.
Harr
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
コメント